Wanna Gamble?

Thursday was the BIG day:  the day the Senate draft version of the “Repeal/Replace Obamacare Bill” was released.  You may remember that a couple of days ago I quoted Senator Schumer as he blasted the GOP Senate plan just as he had previously done to the House version.  However, he had NO idea of the contents of the Senate plan — no one did, not even most Republicans.  Of course that did not stop Mr. “Obstructionist” from alerting all who could hear his voice that death, doom, and destruction were in the offing if that plan was put in place. Let me digress for a moment.

I love football.  Years ago I would bet on some football games — both NFL and NCAA.  It simply made Saturday, Sunday, and Monday night and my love for football a bit more meaningful and exciting.  I’m not sure if you know how sports gambling is structured, so I’ll give you a quick explanation.  If you bet $1.00 on a game, it seldom is just an “even” bet — that is if Team A beats Team B, you win the bet.  To equalize the bet, there is a “line” placed on each game.  If Team A is better than Team B, a line will be set making Team A “give up some points” to Team B — let’s say 6 points as an example.  If you choose to bet Team A, you bet saying that Team A must beat Team B by more than 6 points for you to win.  If you choose Team B, Team B can lose by as much as 5 points and you still win the bet, even though Team B loses the game.  Further, each $1.00 game bet you lose, you must pay not $1.00, but 10% more — or $1.10.  If your team wins you win just $1.00.  So when I planned my bets, I not only had to choose which team I thought would win the game, but if that team would “cover the spread,” or win by more than the points they gave up.  It got complicated.

Funny thing was no matter how much I studied the teams, it seemed really hard to win more bets than I lost.  Thankfully I did not bet much and did not bet many games.  But I learned something from analyzing my bets every week:  almost always if I had finalized my picks and instead of betting them the way my analysis pointed, turned them around and bet the OTHER way, regardless of what my analysis told me I should do, I won more bets than I lost — pretty much every week!

Then House Speaker Nancy Pelosi in March of 2010 said this about the impending Affordable Care Act, or Obamacare:  “You’ve heard about the controversies within the bill, the process about the bill, one or the other. But I don’t know if you have heard that it is legislation for the future, not just about health care for America, but about a healthier America, where preventive care is not something that you have to pay a deductible for or out of pocket. Prevention, prevention, prevention — it’s about diet, not diabetes. It’s going to be very, very exciting. But we have to pass the bill so that you can find out what is in it, away from the fog of the controversy.”  She later said this about a guarantee of Obamacare results:  Nancy Pelosi said a fully-implemented Obamacare program would create four million American jobs — and 400,000 “almost immediately.”  The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO) determined in early 2011 that the president’s healthcare overhaul would cost the US economy 800,000 jobs. Democrats balked at the figure, insisting that the new law would be a job creation boon.

Fast forward to 2017 and examine Obamacare results compared to the promises made by Pelosi, Obama, and others prior to its becoming law:

  • we were promised numerous times:  “If you like your doctor you can keep your doctor;”  “If you like your health plan you can keep your healthplan;”  “Premiums will be reduced by $2500 per year for a family of 4.”
  • Obamacare in spite of the CBO warning that it would cost 800,000 jobs we were promised it “would create 4 million jobs, 400,000 immediately.”

Results?

  • most Obamacare plans restricted doctors and made no provision for physician choice; most health insurance companies either did or have since dropped out of the ACA;  premiums have skyrocketed, some as much as 250%.
  • there was no creation of 4 million jobs related to Obamacare.  In fact, even factoring in added jobs in healthcare, no where near that 4 million number was achieved.

Since we are now in 2017 with a pending replacement for Obamacare, what does that look like?  Honestly, we don’t know yet.  Obamacare was passed with no input at all from anyone — no floor discussion in either House, no amendments, no CBO rating, and not a single GOP vote for it.  This current House Bill was fully disclosed in plenty of time for discussion and analysis in advance, the CBO has rated it, and now it’s in the hands of the Senate, which is rolling out their plan right now.  Leftists even before it was released started their attacks — even with NO facts about it, telling their constituents basically, “No matter what’s in it it has to be bad for Americans and will surely help the rich.”  THEY DON’T KNOW!  The CBO has said they will have their analysis complete and released next week.

So what do you do?  Do you like so many on the Left simply dismiss this bill solely on the grounds of “if it comes from Trump and the Republicans it cannot be good.”  Or do we wait, look at it ourselves and develop our OWN ideas, and wait for the CBO analysis?

Let’s plug it into my football betting analogy above:  Obamacare vs. the AHCA.  Pelosi and a bunch of other Dems including President Obama made all those promises above (and more) that did not pan out.  If you had bet the OTHER way about Obamacare, you’d have won.  Let’s say there’s a 2-point line saying Obamacare is better, simply because it’s been out a few years.  If you bet on Obamacare, you’ve got to give whoever you’re betting 2 points.  If you bet on the AHCA you get 2 points and can win without actually winning the “game.”  Of course nobody knows absolutely if the AHCA will fix all of the Obamacare ills because it’s not in place now.  But we know most of the Obamacare deficiencies and that it is breathing its last breath now and is dying quickly.  Which is YOUR bet?

Mine?  That’s not a fair question.  Or let me state that’s not a fair question “right now.”  Why?  The AHCA is not complete and will certainly look quite different when it gets to a floor vote in the Senate than it does today.  I’m not ready to bet yet.  However, for those of you that bet on Obamacare and would do it again, consider my masterful gambling/bet conclusion in my analogy above:  you like it but it probably will lose.  But you want to bet it will win.  Think about ignoring what you “think” and flip your bet around:  bet on the AHCA.

If you think Obamacare is a good plan, you would probably do much better on that bet if you ignored what you “think,” turn your bet around, and take the AHCA.  And bet it BIGGGG!

Seriously, folks, let’s chill, let the CBO rate the Senate bill AFTER it has been revised and amended, and then let’s make an educated decision on whether to ask our Senators and Representatives to pass it for President Trump to sign into law.

Try my way just one time.  I bet you’ll be right!


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