Senators in both parties — below the leadership level — are starting to see an unmistakable shift that they hope leads to a bipartisan agreement to end the shutdown, perhaps as early as next week, according to more than a dozen sources.
That agreement almost certainly won’t happen this week. Still, Republican and Democratic senators are quietly discussing how to rebuild Congress’ broken spending process, including several bills that would fund the government into next year once it reopens.
There’s no sign yet that Democrats are willing to support the House GOP’s stopgap bill on Thursday, when it’s next scheduled for a Senate vote, but Semafor confirmed a noticeable thaw in the shutdown dynamics among members and aides across the aisle.
It’s a delicate moment for the Senate, which prides itself as the more bipartisan chamber of Congress but has deadlocked for more than a month. Not to mention that the momentum now happening could easily be dashed.
“I’ve been in enough conversations to know that something is different this week than last week, in which there is an interest in doing at least four more appropriation bills across the Senate floor,” said Sen. Jerry Moran, R-Kan. “Democrats still have to figure out how to agree to eliminate the shutdown.”
Moran is talking to Democrats about spending bills, including specific legislation on defense, labor, Commerce-Justice-Science and transportation. He said he’s still awaiting “compatible movement on a [continuing resolution], so that the appropriations process has enough time to do its deal.”
Behind the scenes, Democrats and Republicans see next week as potentially more fertile territory for the government to reopen. That’s because of a dizzying series of events set to happen over the next few days: Food stamps and other government benefits will run out in many states on Saturday, followed by the Tuesday off-year elections.
A congressional recess is also slated to begin on Nov. 7; the Senate has been in session for six straight weeks, even as the House stays in a break that began Sept. 19.
Another factor driving the urgency: The opening of Obamacare insurance markets this weekend, where premiums are rising — in many cases, due to the impending expiration of federal subsidies. That imminent expiration propelled Democrats to block a stopgap funding bill that didn’t revive the subsidies, shutting down the government.
“The pace of conversation has picked up. Trump quietly opened the ACA marketplaces in 30 states, and that’s definitely a part of it,” said Sen. Elissa Slotkin, D-Mich.
Any deal would almost certainly include agreement to write full-year spending bills rather than the series of continuing resolutions that have passed so far in Donald Trump’s presidency. Democrats will also need to claim a win on those tax credits; Republicans have offered a vote, but Democrats want Trump to back a deal to revive them.
By next Wednesday, the shutdown would become the longest ever, surpassing the 35-day shutdown of Trump’s first term.
“Our Democratic colleagues are recognizing the amount they’re inflicting on different groups — and, I think this is important politically,” said Sen. Mike Rounds, R-S.D. “Hopefully, between now and the end of next week, we will get this thing all resolved.”
One big reason it’s unlikely that the shutdown ends this week: President Donald Trump is out of town. The Senate is set to leave Washington on Thursday, absent more concrete progress.
“I’ve talked to some Republicans who are frustrated and in despair. They don’t see any breakthrough. And many people on our side are anxious to see this come to an end. I really think it’s doable,” said Senate Minority Whip Dick Durbin, D-Ill.
“When Trump returns, if he’ll devote himself, even a day, to meet with the principals, we can make some progress,” Durbin added.
Meanwhile, Senate Majority Leader John Thune and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer continued trading blows on the Senate floor over the shutdown, with Thune ridiculing Democrats’ votes against the stopgap bill and Schumer accusing Trump’s administration of making the shutdown more painful than it needs to be with the expiration of benefits.
“Their leadership, at least, I think, is kind of out of the equation. I mean, they don’t have any room to maneuver,” Thune said. “There are a lot of rank-and-file members who want to pursue solutions.”
