Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah, who was killed at his headquarters in a massive Israeli airstrike on Friday, took over the leadership of Hezbollah in 1992 after Hezbollah’s original leader, Abbas Musawi, was killed in an Israeli raid. He immediately set out to make Hezbollah (“Party of God) a major player in the Middle East.
Nasrallah began by courting the Shiites in Iran. A Shiite cleric, he was able to convince the Iranian leadership to invest in his organization. He had an idea to create a two-track path to power: a military wing to intimidate opponents and a political wing to gain the support of the masses.
Hezbollah was on the front lines of the resistance to Israel’s occupation of Lebanon and took full advantage of Israel’s withdrawal from Lebanon in 2000. Nasrallah claimed credit for forcing Israel to withdraw and, using mass media, was able to spread his message to most of the Arab world, where he became an icon of resistance to Israel.
In 2006, he surprised most of the world by challenging Israel in a stand-up fight during the 2006 war. Hezbollah did far better against the IDF than anyone thought possible. Thanks to a clever series of defensive positions and advanced weaponry courtesy of Iran, Hezbollah gave as good as they got during the war. The UN brokered a ceasefire after 34 days.
Nasrallah continued to build his “militia” into a sizable force estimated at 50,000. However, only about 15,000 are battle-ready troops armed with the latest technology and modern armaments.
Nasrallah vaulted into regional prominence when he sided with Syrai’s dictator, Bashar Assad when the 2012 civil war broke out. Hezbollah’s intervention proved to be decisive. It blooded Nasrallah’s army and prepared them for the coming conflict with Israel.
But now, they must go to war without Nasrallah and almost all of their senior commanders.
Hezbollah believed that it was the driving force of this war. It had been attacking Israel for eleven months. It believed that Jerusalem would be pressured into a ceasefire and that the Jewish state would then stop fighting in the North. The terrorist group also expected that it would keep its arsenal largely intact. It did not expect Israel to force it to go on the defensive. The group was not ready for this and was ill-prepared for this kind of war.
Hezbollah had always expected that in any war with Israel, it would choose the time and place. It also expected to be able to take the initiative. Now, its plans have been destroyed, and it has lost so many critical commanders that it will take time to get back to normal and sort itself out. Having expected the war to be low intensity and end with a Hezbollah victory, its arrogance appears to have brought the organization close to ruin.
For more than 20 years, Hassan Nasrallah avoided Israel’s attempt to kill him. During that time, he rose in stature to become one of the most admired Arabs in the Middle East. He was not a statesman or peacemaker. He was a fanatical Shiite terrorist who felt nothing about killing women, children, and other innocents.
His legacy will be more killing. And for that, any civilized person should condemn him.
Iran’s most experienced ally targeted
Hassan Nasrallah was Iran’s most experienced ally in the region. The Hezbollah leader had been key to Iran’s plans in the region for decades, and in the last several years, he had grown even more powerful. Iran sought to create a multi-front war against Israel in the wake of the October 7 attack, and Nasrallah helped lead that war.
Nasrallah had grown to become the senior leader of Iran’s numerous proxies. He would often host Iranian officials and would also invite representatives from Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad to Lebanon to coordinate their attacks on Israel. He also sought to muster the Houthis in Yemen to threaten Israel, and he coordinated with Iraqi militias.
The Hezbollah leader had worked with other key Iranian-backed leaders in the region. In recent years, Iran has seen many of them killed, including Qasem Soleimani of the IRGC and Iraqi militia leader Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis. With those key leaders off the table, Nasrallah was increasingly filling many shoes. Now those shoes are apparently empty.
Hezbollah in disarray
Hezbollah is in disarray. The group has suffered numerous losses to its top leadership in recent days. On September 20, its Radwan force commanders were killed. This represented the loss of 16 key leaders in the terrorist group. In subsequent days, it also lost the head of its drone unit. The loss of Hassan Nasrallah basically cuts the head off the whole organization. It is unclear if Hezbollah had preparations for this scenario.
Hezbollah still has a vast quantity of weapons, including rockets, drones, anti-tank missiles, and precision-guided munitions. However, it will be in chaos and disarray without a clear chain of command or leadership. The group has struggled to respond to Israel’s attacks since the exploding pagers on September 17. It has seen itself suffer one unprecedented blow after another. This keeps the terrorist group off balance.
Hezbollah And Iran Now Know Israel Is Serious
Israel’s willingness to call Hezbollah’s bluff and go all in with airstrikes in Beirut illustrates how serious Israel is about achieving its goals in the North. Israel’s cabinet approved adding the goal of returning residents to northern communities to the goals of the war in mid-September. Israel then proceeded immediately to begin cutting Hezbollah into pieces.
Hezbollah did not expect this. It believed Israel would continue to be on the defensive. Hezbollah also likely believed reports in Israel that Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, known for being a hawk on Hezbollah, would be removed. Instead, Gallant has led the body blows that Hezbollah is now suffering.
Hezbollah got complacent and got used to striking at Israel. Now, it sees how serious Israel is. However, Hezbollah cannot climb down from the tree. It has claimed it will continue to support Hamas. It can’t stop that support without feeling shame. At the same time, it doesn’t have strong leadership who can make bold decisions.
Hezbollah Expected To Dictate The Terms To Israel
Hezbollah believed that it was the driving force of this war. It had been attacking Israel for 11 months. It believed that Israel would be pressured into a ceasefire and would then stop fighting in the North. Hezbollah expected that it would keep its arsenal largely intact. It did not expect Israel to force Hezbollah onto the defensive. The group was not ready to go on the defensive and was ill-prepared for this kind of war.
Hamas And Iran’s Other Proxies Now See Israel’s Resolve
Hamas had expected to survive this war and continue to control Gaza. It saw how Israel was fighting a cautious war in Gaza, and it expected that, eventually, a ceasefire would be forced on Israel. Hamas was happy to see Hezbollah pressuring Israel from the north. For 11 months, Hamas got used to having Hezbollah as a strong ally, able to threaten Israel with 150,000 rockets.
Now Hamas sees that Hezbollah is unable to contend with Israel’s blows. It also shows that Hezbollah’s rocket threat may have diminished. Hezbollah has rarely been able to fire more than a few hundred rockets a day, a lot less than the several thousand that estimates believed Hezbollah could unleash.
Hamas now must wonder if it will soon suffer similar blows to Hezbollah. Its leadership, such as Mohammed Deif and Marwan Issa, has also been eliminated. Hamas assumed that it could cling to power by simply continuing to exist. Now, it has seen Israel’s resolve and has seen its key ally in Lebanon weakened. Hamas must now wonder whether its decision to attack on October 7 has turned into a disaster for it and Iran’s group of proxies in the region.
Instead of an endless threat to Israel, Hamas and Hezbollah have now seen Israel take the initiative.
