COVID-19 Death Projections Way Too High

Let’s be clear: losing ONE person to Coronavirus is one person too many. Having ONE person lose a job to Coronavirus is one person too many. 

That said, we have many Americans who are infected with the virus, many of which are hospitalized. Of those hospitalized, there are many in poor condition. Our prayers are for every one of these people: the ones who are ill, those who have lost jobs, and the families of those who have died.

Today’s conversation is undoubtedly NOT about trying to debunk or to express disbelief in the seriousness of COVID-19. It’s real, it’s horrid, and it’s terrifying. But what today’s conversation IS about is that Coronavirus, while dangerous in every way, life-changing in most ways, it is NOT the inevitable death sentence that we were led to believe. 

Since the beginning of the pandemic, many folks (including me) looked at the numbers of afflicted across the World, looked at the numbers of those who have died from the disease, and put the numbers together to try to draw educated conclusions about the “what-ifs.” In doing so, the “what-ifs” do not match remotely close to the projections that have been given to us by the WHO, the CDC, and even our government.

So what’s going on?

The current estimate for the fatality rates on the coronavirus just doesn’t add up.  The calculations based on existing data are entirely inaccurate. Current data shows that this virus is much less deadly that even the common flu from the 2019-2020 season.

Details below:

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1. Estimates have been made about the fatality rate of the coronavirus.

Often times “estimates” have to be made because data is just not yet available.  These estimates usually involve information that is available and making estimates on what is not.  We cannot tell the future, but we can make educated guesses based on data available.  This is what has been done with the coronavirus because this type of virus has never been seen before.

2. Sometimes estimates are reasonable, and sometimes they are wrong, way off.

Estimates are just that — estimated thoughts based on information available. The entire financial market and the American economy is based on calculations: the stock market, interest rates, sales of cars, furniture, electronics, etc. are all based on estimates regarding where the economy is and where it is “supposed” to go. 

The point is that often when estimates are made, they are wrong because no one can tell the future.  Sometimes forecasts end up close and sometimes they are not and sometimes they are way off.

3. The current estimate for the coronavirus fatality rate is about 3.4%.

The estimates for the fatality rate for the coronavirus are shocking.  The CDC released one report in February stating the percentage varies between 12% and 1%:

“Our estimates of the risk for death in Wuhan reached values as high as 12% in the epicenter of the epidemic and ≈1% in other, more mildly affected areas.”

A report by the World Health Organization (WHO) and China estimates the mortality rate to be around 3.8% based on actual results:

“As of 20 February, 2114 of the 55,924 laboratory-confirmed cases had died: 3.8%. The overall fatality rate varies by location and intensity of transmission (i.e. 5.8% in Wuhan vs. 0.7% in other areas in China).”

Other reports are that the WHO estimates the mortality rate to be around 3.4%:

“The World Health Organization (WHO) has estimated the mortality rate from Covid-19 is about 3.4%. That is higher than seasonal flu and is cause for concern – but even if it is correct, more than 96% of people who become infected with the coronavirus will recover.”

As of today, the actual fatality rate for those who were confirmed to have had the coronavirus is 3.84%.  This is the number of fatalities from the virus divided by the number of individuals who were established with the virus.

4. The same rate for the flu is 10% (but the media tells you it’s .1%).

As The Gateway Pundit reported, according to CDC numbers, in the U.S. in the 2019-2020 flu season, there were 222,000 confirmed cases of the flu from testing and an estimated 36 million flu cases in the United States.  There were 22,000 confirmed deaths from the flu.

That the number of deaths and confirmed cases (through testing) of the flu in the U.S. is based on actual data; the number of people who contracted the flu is an estimate by experts.  There is no way to know who had the flu in the U.S. because many cases are not severe and people do not have a test done to confirm they had the flu.  They believe their symptoms are minor and go on with their normal lives thinking they have a cold or something similar.  Because of this, the CDC must estimate and they estimated 36 million people had the flu in this past flu season.

The rate of the number of individuals who died from the flu to the number of individuals who had the flu is therefore .1% (22,000 / 36 million).  This is an estimate.

However, the rate of individuals who died from the flu to the number of individuals who were confirmed to have had the flu is around 10% (22,000/ 222,000).  This is based on actual data similar to the rate for the coronavirus above.

5. Actual results for the coronavirus are lower than the flu.

Based on the above numbers, the actual fatality rates for those who were confirmed to have had the coronavirus are around 3.4%.

The actual rates for those who were confirmed to have had the flu are around 10%.

The actual data shows that the fatality rate for those who had the flu (10%) is 6% higher than for those with the coronavirus (3.8%).

6. Current estimates between the flu and the coronavirus are not comparing ‘apples to apples’.

The fatality rate that is commonly referred to in the media for the coronavirus is 3.4% from the WHO.  This number is based on actual cases of those who are confirmed with the virus.

The flu fatality rate provided by the CDC includes an estimate of individuals who had the flu but were not confirmed while the fatality rate for the coronavirus does not include those who had the coronavirus but were not confirmed.  This is why the flu fatality rate is .1% and the coronavirus fatality rate is 3.4%!

The two rates are like comparing apples to oranges.  By doing so the coronavirus fatality rate is way overstated when compared to the flu and the media has created a worldwide crisis and panic by reporting this!

The coronavirus is not more fatal than the flu based on current data.  It is much less fatal than the flu based on current data.

7. Those most at risk from the coronavirus are the elderly and sick (similar to the flu).

Just as with the flu, those most at risk of dying from the coronavirus are the elderly and the sick.  The average age for those who died from the coronavirus in Italy is 81 years old.  This is consistent around the world.  There have been no known fatalities for any children 10 and under.

The sick are also at a higher risk similar to the flu.  Current data shows that if you have no pre-existing conditions, your fatality rate if you contract the coronavirus is .9%.

In summary, the coronavirus is not as deadly as is being portrayed in the liberal media.  In fact it is not as deadly as the flu. The elderly and the sick should be protected. Everyone else has very little to worry about. Again, don’t believe what the media is telling you. They are lying again.

So What Should We Do?

We should listen and adhere to those in authority over us. 

Coronavirus seems to be much more easily transmitted than is the flu. However, stating that is just an opinion. But it IS certain that the virus is highly contagious. And we all should take every precaution to protect from infection ourselves, our family members, and others around us.

Social distancing has really been effective in slowing the spread of Coronavirus. As of Saturday morning, March 28, in numbers given by the CDC the numbers of NEW cases is slowing. That alone proves that people staying from the close proximity to others, staying away from crowds, washing hands frequently and just being cautious is working.

Sadly, I predict that at some point in the near future, we are going to be horrified to learn that many who have died at the hands of Coronavirus did so needlessly. We almost certainly will find senseless deaths because of people placing themselves in contact with others with no regard for their proximity and person-to-person contact.

Louisiana is quickly becoming another New York City when it comes to the concentration of Coronavirus cases. The two cities are vastly different and 1500 miles apart. Is their any legitimate correlation to draw between the two?

Yes: they’re both magnets for large numbers of people from other states and countries to visit and spend large percentages of time in groups and in crowds. And in doing so, people find themselves in dangerous proximity to others who carry the virus. And they’re exposed.

The timing of the massive rise so quickly of New Orleans area cases can be easily matched and timed to coordinate with the 2020 Mardi Gras season in New Orleans. For those outside the state, it is common to think of Mardi Gras and its festivities as one day in which several parades with raucous crowds have crazy fun! That’s not the case.

Mardi Gras is a SEASONAL event that takes place over a month with dozens of parades not just in downtown New Orleans, but in multiple suburbs. It’s hard to peg a specific number, but it is safe to estimate 500,000 to 1,000,000 invade the Crescent City for the happening.

Imagine the Coronavirus spreading opportunity it was.

Here’s what I think will probably happen (based solely on opinion):

  • Disease spread will slow in the U.S. because of social distancing.
  • Businesses will begin to slowly reopen in areas of the U.S. with smaller concentrations of people live.
  • Metro areas with intense population concentration will continue to struggle with the virus and infections will continue to rise.
  • Deaths in those area will continue to rise.
  • Americans will permanently alter their ways of personal contact and interfacing with others as will retailers and those in personal service industries. Restaurants, bars, churches, and schools will permanently revise methods of operations.
  • Commercial airline travel will struggle with significant travel decreases. Travel by ground will skyrocket.
  • Professional and amateur sports and entertainment events will transition to ways of operations that curtail closeness between those directly involved and fans and workers. The same will apply to concerts, movie theaters, in parks and recreation areas.
  • People will see personal interactions plummet and obvious mental and emotional issues will begin to creep into the “problem” mode.

These are just a few thoughts of where we may be headed. Based on what we’ve seen, I feel strongly these are logical. And, anyway, who today can say these are going to be wrong!

Seriously, be careful, be cautious, be smart and be safe.

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