Just imagine how much money has been poured into the States holding Democrat primaries today across the nation. Remember this: former NYC Mayor Michael Bloomberg as a presidential candidate has not been on the ballot in any of the primaries conducted this year. However, while he sat on the sidelines waiting for Super Tuesday, Bloomberg has spent several hundred million dollars in advertising and staffing in the Super Tuesday primary states.
We’ve all heard stories and discussions about Super Tuesday. For that matter, we hear those same conversations every four years. But most Americans are unaware of its purposes, how it is structured, and how its results impact the upcoming federal election. Don’t fret: as usual, TruthNewsNetwork has the answers to any of your Super Tuesday questions. We’ll give you those and explain its structure and what its impact will be regarding the November election.
What It Is
Super Tuesday is the date during the presidential primary when the largest number of states hold primaries or caucuses. In some years, such as 2008, this means that nearly half of the union holds their contests on the same day. The name isn’t meant to assign a positive connotation to the date. It simply serves to indicate the sheer number of states voting that day. While the term has been used since at least 1976, the first modern Super Tuesday happened in 1988, a result of Democrats attempting to concentrate several Southern primaries on the same date. In doing so, candidates could nationalize their messages, focusing on the issues that were important for a larger swath of Americans, rather than just those important to early primary states such as Iowa and New Hampshire.
What’s Super Tuesday’s significance?
Super Tuesday is significant because of the likelihood that the day’s winner will become their respective party’s nominee. Candidates are forced to campaign on the issues that affect larger and more diverse groups of people, rather than just rural white voters. Nearly every single year, the primary fight is essentially over once Super Tuesday is finished because of the number of delegates up for grabs that day. This may be especially true in 2020.
When did Super Tuesday start?
Super Tuesday was created by Democrats after 20 years of Republican occupants of the White House, sparing one term for Jimmy Carter. They hoped that holding so many votes on one day would enable the Democrats to nominate someone moderate and electable, unlike Walter Mondale four years prior. Having so many Southern states vote at once backfired for the Democrats on the first Super Tuesday, when Al Gore and Jesse Jackson split the party along racial lines. Michael Dukakis went on to become the nominee, losing spectacularly to George H.W. Bush in the general election.
The strategy did eventually work with the election of Bill Clinton. Before winning the general election in part due to several vital Southern states, Clinton swept the primaries, indicating the importance of those contests. Since then, Southern white Democrats are rarer, and Black voters, who make up large portions of the Democratic electorate, have been given more influence in some Southern states.
What states have elections on Super Tuesday?
Super Tuesday has often been called the Southeastern Conference (SEC) Primary because of its concentration on Southern states. In 2016, 12 states held their primary elections on this day. Every cycle, the states that vote are slightly different, causing a difference in the amount of delegates candidates can secure on that day in each cycle. The following 14 states have decided to have their primaries on Super Tuesday, March 3, 2020: Alabama, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont, and Virginia.
The most notable moves of the day are that of California and Texas. California, as the most populous state, changed the way candidates campaign in advance of Super Tuesday. The state has hundreds of delegates available and is considered far more diverse than some of the traditional Super Tuesday states. Some Democrats believe that California is more accurately representative of the primary electorate of the Democratic party. The story is similar for Texas, the second-most populous state, with a large Latin community. It is unclear how the addition of California and Texas will affect the primaries, but it is sure to make the stakes on Super Tuesday even higher.
Super Tuesday has been an essential indicator of not only who will win each party’s nomination, but who could win the presidency. Although voter turnout can vary between the primary and general elections, having an exceptional Super Tuesday performance can give us a clue into who the next President of the United States may be. With the addition of populous states like California and Texas, that could be even more true in 2020.
Super Tuesday 2020 Expectations
Following a commanding win Saturday in South Carolina, former Vice President Joe Biden suggested Sunday that he’s willing to battle through a contested convention should Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) enter the nominating event with a plurality but not the majority of delegates needed to seal the nomination. The campaign of Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts signaled Sunday that she, too, plans to fight for the nomination through the convention even if she does not comes out of the primaries with the most delegates. Those remarks come after Sanders said at a debate last month that whoever has the most delegates entering the convention, even if it is not a majority, should be the nominee. Rivals had called that a reversal of his position in 2016 when he ran against that year’s eventual nominee, Hillary Clinton.
As it stands, Sanders leads Biden by just four delegates in the latest NBC News projection. Further back is former South Bend, Indiana, Mayor and now a former Presidential candidate, Pete Buttigieg — who dropped out of the race on Sunday night — and Elizabeth Warren. Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN) dropped out of the race yesterday. There’s also billionaire former New York Mayor Mike Bloomberg, who is appearing on the ballot for the first time in the Super Tuesday contests.
A total of 1,991 delegates are needed to clinch the nomination. Should that number not be met ahead of this summer’s convention in Milwaukee, delegates could engage in multiple rounds of voting for a nominee — a process that could lead to a candidate with fewer delegates than the incoming leader becoming the nominee.
Former VP JoeBiden said he would fight for the nomination even if he enters the convention in second place. “Yes. I mean, look, the rules have been set. And I find a lot of folks in Bernie’s operation are now saying that whoever goes in with the most delegates, even if they’re not close or there’s a distance from the 19-plus-hundred that we need, that that’s — they should be declared the winner,” Biden said. “I wonder where that view was when he was challenging Hillary after she went in with a commanding lead.” “Look, you don’t change the rules in the middle of a game,” he continued. “And I’m not at all certain that we’re … going to win with Bernie ahead. I hope that’s not the case. I hope I’m ahead. But we will see. But I think you play by the rules.”
What about the “others?”
Elizabeth Warren’s campaign manager Roger Lau wrote in a memo that after Super Tuesday, her campaign believes “no candidate will likely have a path to the majority of delegates needed to win an outright claim to the Democratic nomination.”
“In the road to the nomination, the Wisconsin primary is halftime, and the convention in Milwaukee is the final play,” he said. “Our grassroots campaign is built to compete in every state and territory and ultimately prevail at the national convention in Milwaukee.”
Late last week, Bloomberg told NBC News‘ Kasie Hunt that he would stay in the race “right to the bitter end” as long as he’s got a chance at winning the nomination. Bloomberg said that if Sanders hits the delegate threshold to secure a majority ahead of the convention, he will not continue his presidential bid. If Sanders amasses only a plurality, however, he will keep pressing forward, Bloomberg said.
The winner according to “Conventional Wisdom.”
Four months ago, that would have been Joe Biden. A week ago, it would have almost certainly been Sen. Bernie Sanders. Going into Super Tuesday, many feel Bernie Sanders will finish the day with a strong lead heading toward Milwaukee’s convention this Summer. But as we all know, in elections, who will win the nomination of the Democrat Party is far from being decided.
One thing to note is the answer to a question that is being repeatedly asked: What happens to the votes already cast in primaries for Sen. Amy Klobuchar and Mayor Pete Buttigieg now that both have dropped out of the race. While some states allow absentee voters to change their choice by requesting a new ballot or by turning in their old ballot at a polling place for a new one, early voters in Super Tuesday states who chose Buttigieg or Klobuchar – or billionaire Tom Steyer or any of the other candidates who have suspended their campaigns – are out of luck.
It’s because of those delegates that are already committed to Mayor Pete and Sen. Klobuchar that currently are meaningless. They are now lost in the race for the nomination. Those who would have cast their votes for either of these two will now have to choose another candidate.
Democrat Party Panic
Democrats are nervously eyeing the primaries so far that have given Sanders a lead going into Super Tuesday that will be hard to overcome. Let’s be honest: no matter what we have heard, Democrat Party leaders say again and again when asked that whoever wins the most delegates will be the candidate the Party backs in the election against Donald Trump. Democrats feel that Bernie Sanders, if nominated, cannot win the General Election facing Donald Trump. So here’s what many feel is their plan:
- Sen. Klobuchar and Mayor Pete each have thrown their support to Joe Biden for the Democrat nomination. Though their delegates will NOT move to either of the two, their endorsements will give Biden a strong nudge.
- The Party will, in the next days, push hard for the moderate Joe Biden to find a path to pass the socialist Bernie Sanders.
- But here’s the “big banana” for the Democrats: Mayor Michael Bloomberg with his millions of dollars certainly has the financial staying-power to hang in there through the Democrat Convention. Democrat leaders will, in unity, push Bloomberg to bow out of the race and throw his support (and money) behind the former Vice President. Most think Bloomberg’s concept of buying the race will fail. Bloomberg and Biden are now the only two moderate candidates remaining and need to join forces to push past Bernie Sanders. But there may be a twist in this. See below in our summary.
Playing the game of politics at this level is very expensive and is almost always more a popularity contest more than just an election. It certainly takes lots of money.
Putting that money behind a popular candidate usually gives that candidate a considerable edge. But 2020 has an enigma: Bernie Sanders. There is no question the socialist has great appeal for a large group of young Americans. Many do not understand his political ideas could easily result in economic calamity in the U.S. The certain destruction of capitalism — which is the cornerstone of the U.S. unmatched leadership in the world — will devastate every aspect of economic life in America and all it touches. Socialism’s magnet for voters? “Free everything!”
So what will happen? How will this play out? And will Super Tuesday play a significant role? Want a prediction?
Bloomberg will have at best a mediocre Super Tuesday in capturing Democrat delegate votes. If that happens, it will undoubtedly take support away from Biden and give Sanders an edge in the delegate count. The Democrat Party will have to kick into high gear to keep a moderate candidate in the running. Why? If Sanders wins the Democrat Party nomination, the Democrat Party is DONE!
Bernie Sanders is not even a Democrat!
I predict a deal will be cut quickly after Super Tuesday between Biden and Bloomberg. That deal will put both together as a team to beat Sanders for the nomination for President: one will run as President and the other as Vice President. That could be determined in Milwaukee.
I know that’s a far-fetched concept. However, to me, that seems at this point to be the only way Democrats can keep a socialist off their 2020 ticket, which would create an impossible task for the party in November: to beat Donald Trump and win back the White House.
If that happens, once again, Bernie Sanders will be on the receiving end of the political power of the Democrat Party and not in a good way. The party took the 2016 nomination from Bernie for Hillary Clinton. It looks to me that the table is set for a similar result this year.
I can see just one possible spoiler should Dems take that approach once more. Bernie has a substantial base of support. Bernie would be tempted to test that support, wondering if it would be sufficient for him to mount a run as an Independent in the November race.
Should that develop, Democrats will go crazy with rage! These Democrats remember when this scenario happened to Republicans in 1992. Ross Perot ran as an Independent against Bill Clinton and President George H.W. Bush who sought a second White House term. Perot was a conservative and garnered 19% of the vote, most of which came from Republicans. That 19% put Clinton in the White House and kept Bush 41’s second term as president.
So what else might happen? Bernie got a vacation home as a compromise in 2016 for what happened to him with the superdelegate debacle initiated by the Democrat Party to send Hillary to what they all thought was at least four years in the White House. There’s no telling what Bernie might get from the Party this time!
To a guy who has never held a real private sector job before becoming Mayor of a Burlington, Vermont, who knows what his price would be for his second bribe from the DNC.
One more quick thought: Mayor Pete on Sunday received a call from Barack Obama. Mr. Obama “advised” the Mayor to withdraw, telling Pete he ran a valiant race but should consider dropping out to strengthen the moderate Democrats bid to beat Bernie Sanders. I would not be surprised if Michael Bloomberg receives a similar call as did the Mayor!