Don’t look now, but Joe is failing. Not only has his campaign been rocked by sexual assault allegations from one-time staffer Tara Reade, but the public is beginning to give up on the former vice president. A new Emerson College poll showed 57 percent of likely voters think President Trump will win reelection in November.
Remember, Establishment Democrats put forward Uncle Joe because he was the “safe” candidate, bound to defeat Trump. How’s that idea working now?
That’s not the only problem that crops up in the Emerson Poll. It also shows Trump supporters 19 points more enthusiastic about their candidate than Biden supporters. That “enthusiasm gap” will drive turnout this fall. With Democrats dependent on young people and minorities, both typically less reliable voters, that lack of excitement for the candidate could be a big problem.
Also less than gung-ho about Biden is, predictably, Bernie Sanders’s army. Though the Vermont socialist has endorsed Biden, 51 percent of Bernie supporters are, according to Emerson, open to voting for a third-party candidate. That normally messes with Republicans in elections by splitting votes. This time, a third-party candidate might sink Democrats.
Another red flag is Biden’s not-so-hot fund-raising; according to the New York Times, Trump has a monster cash advantage of $187 million. Further, in swing-state polling, the presumptive Democratic nominee is running behind where Hillary Clinton stood at this point in the race, and we know how that turned out.
As all of those issues cast doubt on Biden’s prospects, the presumptive nominee must now fend off Tara Reade’s allegations, which put #MeToo-supporting Democrats into an incredibly awkward spot. We’ve reported the last two days about how lukewarm previous stalwarts in the #MeT00 Movement have been to turn on Biden. But Friday, the winds of doubt switched directions — against him now.
None of this is good news for the Biden campaign, which will likely confront further alligators in the months ahead. Sooner or later, the coronavirus will no longer excuse the former VP’s invisibility; he will have to participate in the kind of give-and-take that often shows him getting mixed-up, including real – not scripted – town halls and interviews, and without Jill standing or sitting next to him to act as interpreter.
At that point, the public will see what numerous Democrats have noted — Obama’s former wing-man is struggling with some “cognitive decline.”
Americans really cannot elect a president who mixes up his sister with his wife or who collapses in mid-sentence, unsure of where he’s going next.
Conventional thinking is to push Biden to the side and replace him with Bernie Sanders. After all, the “Bernie Bros” carry a lot of weight in the Party now. But Democrat leadership doesn’t want Bernie back around. They are convinced he cannot beat Donald Trump. But if they replace Biden with someone other than Bernie, all the “Bernie Bros” will probably revolt one more time. Remember: many Bros walked across the aisle and voted for Trump because they couldn’t stand Hillary.
So what do they do?
One idea has been to convince Biden to step aside in favor of Michelle Obama, seen as a sure bet to beat Trump. (They thought that about Hillary in 2016, too) So far, though, the former first lady has reportedly scoffed at all invitations to enter the race. Why should she subject herself once more to what she saw as the horrors of living under a microscope in the White House for her eight years there? She and Barack have pretty much everything they could want today and for their futures: lots and lots of money, (the Netflix deal) mansions in D.C. , Chicago, and an estate on the water at Martha’s Vineyard. And Michelle can just do whatever she wants to do. She hated the presidency and what it did to their lives for 8 years. It would be a tough sell to get her into this race.
That leaves Hillary Clinton. Biden could choose Clinton as his running mate, and then step down before the election and allow Hillary to run in his place.
Clinton is the only VP candidate who would be able to pull off such a last-minute switch. She has the team, the resources and the experience to be the nominee; Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN), former Georgia state Rep. Stacey Abrams and Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA) do not.
Clinton is ready and eager. She is desperate to avenge her 2016 loss (which she still blames on Putin) and has pumped up her public profile to keep herself in consideration. In past months she has conducted interviews non-stop, promoted the flattering four-part Hulu film about herself, made headlines by attacking Bernie Sanders and Mark Zuckerberg, and fired unending salvos against President Trump.
But can she draw enough support to pull off such a run? We know she has the name recognition. She’d certainly win the endorsement of President Obama who would campaign for her. And, of course, her husband will always be in the wings. He’s still one of the most popular presidents in U.S. history.
What about Hillary’s baggage?
I doubt there’s been enough time to go by to erase the memories in the minds of millions of Americans of her controversial actions through the years and the non-stop scandals that popped up almost daily during 2016. Far more people dislike her today than did when she opposed Trump. (That’s from “Dan’s Poll”)
She’s just one of those people who Americans love or simply hate. There’s very little in between the two.
So if it’s not Biden or Bernie, if it’s not Michelle and it falls to Hillary Clinton to win Dems the White House, what are their chances against Donald Trump?
Why do you think their marching orders since the day after 2016 election day have been to drag-up anything and everything they can to discredit Trump sufficient to send him packing? Hillary’s got baggage, but Dems still think Trump has more than she, even after the massive gov’t efforts to dig up stuff sufficient to disqualify him.
We may just be looking at President Trump through 2024. And that keeps Democrat Party leadership up late every night.